高盛：中国农业板块（季度）：母猪数量有限回升，首个生物技术性状盈利即将实现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on DBN due to its strong market position in biotech traits and a "Buy" rating on Muyuan based on sustained hog price recovery [4][43]. Core Insights - Improved visibility on trait payments for the 2023/24 season has been established, with major seed producers settling trait payments during August-September [3][4]. - The first contribution of biotech seeds trait license revenue for DBN is expected to reach 10% and 20% of net profit in 2024/25E, based on a 2-15% industry penetration assumption and a 60-70% market share in trait supply [4][6]. - Biotech corn seed production area is projected to reach 100-150k mu in 2023/24E, supplying 10-15% of national corn production next crop season, with expectations for a 2-3x increase in seed production area for 2024/25E [6][7]. Summary by Sections Biotech Seeds - Feedback indicates that trait payments for the 2023/24 season have been settled, with prepayments made by major seed producers [3][4]. - Biotech seed pricing is expected to remain stable at Rmb80/mu, reflecting a 40-50% premium over traditional seeds [4]. Protein Demand - Domestic hog demand showed sequential improvement in 3Q24E, with signs of destocking of frozen pork inventory beyond past seasonality [4][11]. - The average domestic hog price was Rmb19.0/kg in September, which is 7% lower month-on-month but 15% higher year-on-year [24]. Grains and Supply - The supply deficit for corn in 2024/25E is estimated at 7 million tons, or 0.6% of the market, compared to a surplus of 0.1% for 2023/24E [14]. - For soybeans, a supply surplus of 22 million tons is projected for 2024/25E, representing 5.5% of the market [14]. Market Trends - The report highlights a decline in the sow herd by 0.2% month-on-month in August 2024, which is 10% lower than at the beginning of 2023 [22]. - The inventory of frozen pork has decreased to 0.6 million tons in 3Q24E, which is 33% lower quarter-on-quarter, driven by recovering consumption [23].