纺织服装行业2024年三季报业绩前瞻：政策发力、预期触底，品牌修复行情启动

Investment Rating - The report gives a positive investment rating for the textile and apparel industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" outlook for the sector [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that domestic consumption expectations have bottomed out, and external demand is benefiting from mild downstream inventory replenishment. It anticipates a gradual improvement in apparel retail sales due to favorable weather and supportive domestic policies [2]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of sports consumption and the stable operational quality of brands, suggesting a potential acceleration in growth in Q4 2024 [2]. - The report notes that the pessimistic expectations for men's clothing are being repaired, with leading brands showing resilience, while the performance of women's and children's clothing brands varies [2]. Summary by Sections Domestic Demand - Retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles from January to August reached 904.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.3%. However, there was a notable decline in July and August, with decreases of 5.2% and 1.6% respectively. The report expects a gradual improvement starting in September as the weather cools and the autumn/winter season begins [2]. External Demand - From January to August, textile and apparel exports amounted to 197.8 billion USD, with a year-on-year growth of 1.1%. The report indicates that while textile exports grew by 3.5%, apparel exports saw a decline of 1.0%. It also notes that Vietnam's textile and footwear exports grew by 8.9% and 12.5% respectively, highlighting a recovery in supply chain orders driven by downstream inventory replenishment [2]. Brand Performance - The report anticipates that major sports brands like Anta, FILA, Li Ning, and others will see retail sales growth in Q3 2024, with expected growth rates ranging from low single digits to 10% [2]. - In the men's clothing segment, brands like Bi Yin Le Fen are expected to see revenue and net profit growth of 5% in Q3 2024, while others like Baoxini will experience a decline [2]. - For women's and children's clothing, brands with good cost-performance ratios are expected to perform relatively well, with some brands like Semir expected to see growth in both revenue and profit [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality domestic brands that are expected to recover and grow, particularly in the sports and leisure apparel sectors. Specific brands highlighted include Anta Sports, 361 Degrees, and Bosideng [2].