The state of retail banking: Profitability and growth in the era of digital and AI

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the retail banking industry Core Insights - Retail banks globally are experiencing a period of profitability, with returns on equity (ROEs) reaching approximately 12 percent in 2023, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis, up from 10 percent between 2013 and 2020 [3][10] - The retail banking sector is facing three major challenges: cost inflation, increased fraud, and uncertainty regarding interest rates, which will compress margins and increase operational costs [4][28] - Banks are expected to focus on enhancing primary customer relationships and protecting margins through traditional and next-generation capabilities, including digitization and AI [4][7] Summary by Sections 1. The State of Global Retail Banking - The retail banking sector has seen significant growth, with global revenues surpassing $3 trillion in 2023, reflecting an annual growth rate of about 8 percent [12] - Regions such as Latin America and Emerging Asia have led in revenue growth, with Latin America achieving a 19 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2020 to 2023 [12][10] 2. Challenges Ahead - Retail banks are expected to face sluggish deposit growth due to a high-interest-rate environment and tightening monetary policies [15] - The report anticipates margin declines of 5 to 10 percent by 2026 across various geographies, driven by rising costs and regulatory pressures [18][28] 3. Strategies for Success - Banks should adopt a mobile-first integrated distribution strategy to enhance customer engagement and streamline operations [34][36] - Developing relationship-based incentives and rewards can help banks deepen customer relationships and counter competition from fintechs [43] 4. The Role of Technology - Investment in technology, particularly in digitization and AI, is crucial for banks to improve pricing, mitigate losses, and enhance productivity [7][8] - The report highlights the importance of mastering mobile channels to orchestrate customer journeys and improve service delivery [41][42] 5. Competitive Landscape - Fintechs continue to pose a competitive threat, capturing significant market share in areas like payment services and remittances [21][22] - Traditional banks must focus on building deeper customer relationships and offering low-cost services to remain competitive [23][24]