2024年9月末市场大涨点评：强势反转 开启长牛

Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a significant increase from September 24 to September 30, 2024, with the index rising from 2770.75 points to 3336.50 points, a gain of 21.37%. The CSI 300 index rose by 25.06%, the ChiNext index increased by 42.12%, and the STAR 50 index saw a rise of 35.66%. The trading volume exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan, setting a new historical high [4][5]. Market Drivers - The recent market rally is driven by several factors, including heightened policy support aimed at boosting the capital market, encouraging long-term funds to enter the market, and supporting mergers and acquisitions among listed companies. The People's Bank of China announced new monetary policy tools to stabilize the stock market, exceeding market expectations [5]. - Counter-cyclical policies are being implemented to stabilize the economy, including reductions in the reserve requirement ratio and policy interest rates, as well as adjustments to housing loan rates and down payment ratios. The Politburo meeting on September 26 emphasized increasing fiscal and monetary policy adjustments to promote recovery in the real estate market [5]. - International funds are attracted to high-quality assets in China, especially after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, initiating a new round of easing. The stabilization of the RMB exchange rate has also contributed to this trend, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 15.82% from September 24 to 30, and a 9.3% increase during the National Day holiday [5]. Market Outlook - The recent surge has reversed previous pessimistic market expectations, creating a positive feedback loop as the market opens higher and attracts more outside capital. Historically, Chinese residents have favored real estate for asset allocation, but the recent downturn in property prices has led to increased interest in equity assets. To enhance market confidence and investment returns, it is essential to encourage funds to enter the market [6]. - The current upward trend is viewed as the beginning of a bull market, characterized by valuation recovery after a prolonged period of weakness. Although there may be short-term technical adjustments due to rapid increases, the long-term bull market is expected to continue, presenting opportunities for medium to long-term investment [6].