9月美国CPI数据：CPI略超预期，但不阻碍美联储继续温和降息

Inflation Data - September CPI year-on-year growth decreased to 2.4%, slightly above the 2.3% market expectation[2] - Core CPI year-on-year growth was 3.3%, exceeding the 3.2% forecast[2] - CPI month-on-month growth remained at 0.2%, while core CPI increased by 0.3%[2] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement a cumulative 50 basis points (BP) rate cut by the end of the year[2] - Despite rising unemployment claims, most Fed officials support continued moderate rate cuts[3] - The market anticipates two more 25 BP cuts in November and December, totaling 100 BP for the year[10] Employment and Economic Outlook - Initial jobless claims rose to 258,000, significantly higher than the expected 230,000, indicating potential upward pressure on the unemployment rate[3] - The labor market remains weak, which may influence the Fed's decision on future rate cuts[10] Cost of Living and Core Services - Housing costs showed a month-on-month decline to 0.2%, with year-on-year growth expected to drop below 4.5% by year-end[2] - Core services prices, including medical and transportation, have shown notable increases, indicating some price stickiness in the service sector[2] Market Reactions - Following the data release, the U.S. dollar index rose to 102.8529 before slightly retreating, while U.S. Treasury yields showed a slight decline[3] - The market's focus has shifted from recession fears to concerns about "no landing" and re-inflation, keeping bond yields and the dollar index elevated[10]