Tongli Tianqi(SH:605286)2024-10-11 08:23Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 36.40 CNY, based on a projected PE of 20x for 2024 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company is a leading manufacturer of elevator components and is experiencing rapid growth in its performance, with a revenue of 1.326 billion CNY in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.81%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 210 million CNY in 2023, up 50.46% year-on-year, and 123 million CNY in H1 2024, up 65.24% year-on-year [1][2][21]. - The demand for replacing old elevators is expected to increase significantly, benefiting the company as it has established itself as a leader in the elevator component manufacturing industry [1][2]. - The energy storage market is on the rise, with the company's subsidiary, Tianqi Hongyuan, leading in technology and having a rich order book, which is expected to enhance the overall profitability of the company [1][2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a strong foundation in elevator component manufacturing and is making strides in the renewable energy sector. It was established in 2003 and has expanded its operations through various subsidiaries, including Tianqi Hongyuan, which focuses on energy storage and renewable energy projects [1][13][17]. Financial Performance - The company has shown a steady increase in revenue from 1.512 billion CNY in 2019 to 2.433 billion CNY in 2023, with a CAGR of 12.63%. The revenue for H1 2024 is reported at 1.326 billion CNY, indicating strong growth [21][24]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company has also seen significant growth, with a CAGR of 17.46% from 2019 to 2023 [21][24]. Elevator Component Manufacturing - The elevator component manufacturing industry is influenced by the demand for new elevators, which has been affected by the slowdown in the real estate sector. However, the demand for replacing old elevators is expected to grow, with over 800,000 elevators over 15 years old anticipated to be replaced [1][35][38]. - The company is positioned as a leading supplier of elevator components, providing products to major global brands [1][35]. Renewable Energy Sector - The company's subsidiary, Tianqi Hongyuan, has established itself in the energy storage and renewable energy sectors, with significant project agreements and technological advantages [1][2][17]. - The revenue from the renewable energy business surged from 206 million CNY in 2022 to 432 million CNY in 2023, marking a year-on-year growth of 109.67% [21][24]. Valuation and Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.183 billion CNY, 3.687 billion CNY, and 4.141 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 31%, 16%, and 12% [2][4]. - The net profit is expected to reach 305 million CNY, 420 million CNY, and 498 million CNY for the same years, with growth rates of 41%, 38%, and 18% [2][4].