家电行业2024年三季报业绩前瞻：白电外销延续高增，地产+以旧换新政策带动厨电景气度恢复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the home appliance industry for Q3 2024, driven by strong export growth and supportive policies in real estate and appliance replacement programs [3]. Core Insights - The air conditioning sector showed a cumulative production of 140.43 million units from January to August 2024, reflecting a 12% year-on-year increase, with exports growing by 31% [3][11]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: 1) White goods benefiting from real estate policy changes, 2) Export recovery improving revenue and performance, and 3) Core components experiencing increased demand due to the favorable outlook for white goods [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. White Goods and Kitchen Appliances - Air conditioning sales increased by 12% year-on-year, with domestic sales slightly up by 0.2% and exports significantly higher [3][11]. - The report notes a decline in refrigerator sales by 2% domestically, while washing machine sales rose by 8% [3][11]. - The real estate sector's recovery and the "old-for-new" policy are expected to stimulate demand for both white goods and kitchen appliances [3][11]. 2. Performance of Key Companies - Midea Group's air conditioning domestic sales fell by 3.5%, but exports surged by 30.6%, leading to an overall growth of 10.2% [3]. - Haier and Gree are projected to have stable revenues with slight increases in profits for Q3 2024 [3]. - The report highlights mixed performance among kitchen appliance companies, with some facing significant declines in revenue and profits [3]. 3. Small Appliances - Domestic brands are experiencing high growth in exports, while new product iterations are being introduced in the domestic market [3]. - Companies like Supor and Stone Technology are expected to see revenue growth, while others like Joyoung and Bear are projected to face declines [3]. 4. New Displays and Lighting - The report anticipates a turning point for emerging display technologies, while the lighting sector is expected to see gradual improvements [3]. 5. Investment Themes - The report emphasizes the importance of real estate policy changes and export recovery as key drivers for investment in the home appliance sector [5][6]. - It recommends focusing on white goods, export-oriented companies, and core component suppliers as potential investment opportunities [5][6].