中国房地产指数系统：一线城市楼市新政落地，能带动市场止跌回稳吗？

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate market in first-tier cities following the implementation of new policies aimed at stabilizing the market and boosting demand [15][21]. Core Insights - Recent policy changes in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou are expected to stimulate housing demand by optimizing purchase restrictions, lowering down payment ratios, and reducing the exemption period for value-added tax [15][21]. - The adjustments in purchase restrictions include significant changes such as the reduction of social insurance or personal income tax payment requirements for non-local households in Shanghai from 3 years to 1 year, and the complete removal of purchase limits in Guangzhou [15][21]. - The lowering of down payment ratios to 15% for first-time buyers and 20%-25% for second homes in Shanghai and Shenzhen is anticipated to further reduce the barriers to home ownership [15][21]. - The reduction of the value-added tax exemption period from 5 years to 2 years in both Shanghai and Shenzhen is expected to lower transaction costs for buyers [15][21]. Summary by Sections Policy Changes - Shanghai has adjusted its housing purchase policy to allow non-local households to buy homes with only 1 year of social insurance or personal income tax payments, and families with residence permits can purchase 2 homes if they meet certain criteria [15]. - Shenzhen has removed purchase limits in suburban areas and reduced the social insurance requirement for non-local households from 3 years to 1 year [15][21]. - Guangzhou has eliminated all purchase restrictions, allowing both local and non-local residents to buy homes without qualification checks [15][21]. Financial Adjustments - The down payment ratio for first-time buyers in Shanghai and Shenzhen has been reduced to 15%, while the second home down payment ratio has been lowered to between 20% and 25% [15][21]. - The value-added tax exemption period has been cut from 5 years to 2 years, which is expected to decrease the overall cost of home transactions [15][21]. Market Impact - The report suggests that these policy changes will likely lead to an increase in housing demand and market activity in the coming months, with expectations of a recovery in both new and second-hand housing markets [15][21].