银行业2024年三季报业绩前瞻：业绩筑底趋势明朗，聚焦高拨备绩优股、红利股

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector, indicating a "Buy" rating for high provision quality stocks and dividend stocks [3]. Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to show stable performance in Q3 2024, with a narrowing decline in revenue and slight profit growth. The forecast for the first nine months of 2024 indicates a revenue decline of 1.7% year-on-year, an improvement from the 2.1% decline in the first half of 2024, and a net profit growth of 0.6% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The report predicts that the revenue of listed banks will decline by 1.7% year-on-year for 9M24, a slight improvement from the 2.1% decline in 1H24. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 0.6% [3][4]. Performance by Bank Type - State-owned banks are projected to see a revenue decline of 2.1% and a net profit decline of 0.6%, showing slight improvement compared to mid-year results. Joint-stock banks are expected to narrow their revenue decline to 2.6% and achieve a net profit growth of 1.2%. High-quality city and rural commercial banks are expected to lead with revenue growth of 5% and 3.2%, respectively [3][4]. Interest Margin and Market Conditions - The report anticipates that the interest margin for listed banks will stabilize in Q3 2024, with a projected year-on-year decline of 16 basis points to 1.59%. The decline in interest margin is expected to be less severe in 2025, with an estimated drop to 1.48% [4][5]. Credit Growth and Demand - The effective credit issuance driven by actual demand is crucial for the revenue recovery of listed banks. The report notes that the credit growth rate is around 8%, indicating stability in credit issuance despite a slowdown in growth [5][6]. Asset Quality and Non-Performing Loans - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is expected to remain stable at approximately 1.24% in Q3 2024, with a low probability of unexpected increases in NPL generation. The report highlights the importance of the provision coverage ratio in maintaining performance stability [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on banks with stable performance and lower sensitivity to mortgage rate adjustments, as well as high-dividend banks. Specific banks highlighted include Suzhou Bank, Rural Commercial Bank of Jiangsu, and Industrial Bank [6][7].