摩根士丹利：NVIDIA-黄仁勋会议强调了加速计算跑道的规模和长度

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to NVIDIA Corp. and identifies it as a "Top Pick" in the semiconductor industry with a price target of $150.00 [4][13][14]. Core Insights - The management of NVIDIA expresses high confidence in long-term growth opportunities driven by the increasing complexity of AI inference, particularly with the introduction of "long thinking" models that require more computational power [2][3][7]. - The Blackwell systems (NVL36/72) are highlighted as the best solutions for addressing the challenges posed by complex inference, providing a competitive edge over merchant and custom alternatives [2][3]. - NVIDIA is positioned to benefit significantly from the ongoing AI investment cycle, with expectations of strong revenue growth in 2025 and beyond [3][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Metrics - Current market capitalization is approximately $3.33 billion, with a recent stock price of $132.65 [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for fiscal years 2024 to 2027 are projected at $1.30, $2.80, $3.78, and $4.13 respectively, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 51.0 in 2024 to 34.1 in 2027 [4][20]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the high cost of scaling training clusters and the explosive adoption of high-end GPUs in generative AI inference have positively influenced NVIDIA's market position [3][11]. - The anticipated ramp-up of Blackwell systems is expected to drive strong demand, with the product sold out for the next 12 months [2][11]. Long-term Vision - NVIDIA envisions a future where enterprises will employ numerous "digital AI employees" capable of executing complex tasks, indicating a significant shift in workforce dynamics [9][11]. - The report emphasizes that the complexity of inference will necessitate substantial investments in hardware, positioning NVIDIA's Blackwell systems as critical to meeting these new demands [9][11]. Competitive Positioning - NVIDIA's full-stack approach to AI solutions is seen as a key differentiator, allowing the company to maintain a considerable lead in the market [3][11]. - The report suggests that NVIDIA is likely to gain market share in AI processors as demand for custom silicon increases among major users [11][17].