摩根士丹利：电子元器件_新加坡、香港投资者拜访

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hirose Electric has been raised to Overweight (OW) as of July 9, 2024, while Ibiden's investment rating has been lowered to Underweight (UW) as of January 17, 2024 [2][6]. Core Insights - There is a shift in investor preference from themes linked to AI to a focus on earnings, with significant interest in the earnings outlook of specific companies such as TDK, Hirose Electric, and Murata Manufacturing [2][3]. - TDK is expected to report upbeat earnings for July-September 2024, driven by increased sales to North American high-end smartphone firms and a decline in cobalt prices for rechargeable batteries [3][5]. - Investors are skeptical about the earnings potential of BEV batteries, with concerns about the peak level of TDK's earnings due to anticipated shipment peaks and currency fluctuations [3][5]. - Hirose Electric has faced multiple downward revisions in its operating profit guidance, but there are expectations for a rebound in sales due to increased demand for connectors in North American smartphones [6][7]. - Murata Manufacturing is expected to maintain its earnings growth despite the inventory cycle, while Taiyo Yuden may struggle to meet its guidance due to market conditions [7][8]. - Ibiden is seen as an AI-related stock but is projected to experience profit declines due to rising depreciation costs and high market expectations that may not be met [10][14]. Summary by Sections Investor Meetings - 32 individual meetings were held with institutional investors in Singapore and Hong Kong, focusing on stock selection and earnings outlooks for July-September 2024 and the medium term from fiscal year 2025 [1]. Earnings Outlook - TDK's earnings are expected to peak in July-September 2024, with strong growth anticipated from rechargeable batteries and MEMS sensors, despite concerns about currency impacts [3][16]. - Hirose Electric's operating profit guidance has been revised downwards, but there are expectations for an upward revision in future guidance due to improved sales prospects [6][7]. - Murata Manufacturing is expected to sustain earnings growth, while Taiyo Yuden may face challenges in meeting its guidance [7][8]. Company-Specific Insights - TDK's capital investment for an EV battery plant in North America is estimated at $1.5-2.5 billion, with concerns about valuation and geopolitical risks [5]. - Ibiden is expected to face profit declines due to increased depreciation costs and a gap between market expectations and achievable earnings [10][14].