摩根士丹利：半导体_周刊_对潜在新贸易限制的思考；NVDA 路线图

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Attractive" rating for the semiconductor industry, with a cautious outlook on specific segments [1]. Core Insights - Investor expectations are focused on potential new semiconductor export controls, with a bullish view on the semiconductor sector despite uncertainties [1][2]. - NVIDIA's roadmap changes are not expected to significantly impact revenue trends, which remain strong [2]. - August Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) billings data exceeded expectations, with a month-over-month sales increase of 15.4% [2][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a bottoming process, with expectations of returning to growth in CY24 compared to CY23 [7]. - Strong demand in data center markets contrasts with weakness in other sectors, leading to a cautious outlook for the remainder of the year [6][7]. Market Performance - August SIA data showed sales growth across various segments, with the Americas and China leading the way [2][6]. - DRAM sales increased by 66.2% month-over-month, while NAND sales rose by 38.3% [5][10]. Company-Specific Insights - NVIDIA remains a top pick in the semiconductor space, with anticipated strong business trends through CY25 [2]. - Adjustments to NVIDIA's product roadmap are seen as inconsequential, aligning production with customer demand [2]. Financial Projections - The forecast for CY24 growth is set at 19.4%, with a slight increase from previous estimates [6]. - For CY25, growth is projected at 8.2%, reflecting a cautious but optimistic outlook [6].