摩根士丹利：金属与采矿_ 3Q24 中型股预览

Investment Rating - Industry View: Attractive [1] Core Insights - Key themes identified include M&A commentary, H2 volume uplift, challenging copper/zinc smelter margin outlook, alumina tightness, and mark to market upgrades [1] - Antofagasta (ANTO) is expected to have soft 3Q24 and 2025 production prospects, while First Quantum (FM) is spotlighted for asset divestment prospects and Cobre Panama concentrate sale [1] - KGHM is gaining momentum with a self-help story and a strategy update expected by year-end 2024 [1] - Norsk Hydro (NHY) shows robust EBITDA upgrade prospects and improving cash returns [1] Summary by Company Antofagasta (ANTO) - Production forecast of 177kt is below consensus of 182kt, with net cash costs expected at USc163/lb, 7% above consensus [16] - Key metrics for Q3 2024 include copper production guidance of 659kt and capex outlook of US$2.65bn [17] Boliden (BOL) - Operating profit forecast for 3Q24 is SEK2.29bn, largely in line with consensus [19] - Key focus areas include smelters profitability outlook and progress on the Tara mine restart [20] First Quantum (FQM) - 3Q24 EBITDA forecast of US$343mn is 2% below consensus of US$350mn, with net debt expected at US$5.8bn [24] - Key metrics include copper production forecast of 104kt, stable q/q, and C1 cash cost estimate of US$1.69/lb [24] KGHM Polska Miedz SA - 3Q24 EBITDA forecast of PLN2,136mn is 2% above consensus of PLN2,103mn, with net debt expected to rise to PLN3.9bn [27] - Focus on production updates and capital allocation strategies [28] Lundin Mining (LUMI) - 3Q24 EBITDA forecast of US$513mn is 6% below consensus of US$545mn, with net debt forecast at US$1.532bn [31] - Production forecast includes copper at 98.0kt and cash costs higher than guidance [31] Norsk Hydro (NHY) - Underlying EBITDA forecast for Q3 is NOK7.4bn, 8% above consensus of NOK6.8bn [34] - Key focus areas include extrusions volume and margin outlook [35] Metlen Energy & Metals - 3Q24 EBITDA forecast stands at €274mn, up 23% q/q [39] - Net debt expected to rise to €2.5bn due to elevated growth capex [39] Aurubis AG - FY24 Operating EBT expected at €410mn, with a profit warning indicating lower guidance [44] - Price target revised down to €64 from €69 [45]