高盛：美洲技术_半导体_在 3Q24 EPS 之前降低模拟_MCU 估计；短期内保持谨慎

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating on Analog Devices (ADI) and ON Semiconductor, a Neutral rating on Microchip Technology (MCHP) and NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), and a Sell rating on Texas Instruments (TXN) [1][2]. Core Insights - The report indicates a reduction in forward estimates for Analog, MCU, and Power semiconductor suppliers due to renewed weakness in the Automotive sector, with updated earnings estimates for 2025/26 now sitting 13%/12% below Street consensus [1][2]. - There is a cautious outlook for the near-term, but potential for a rebound in fundamentals in 2025 exists, driven by fiscal stimulus in China and possible rate cuts in the U.S. [1][2]. Summary by Sections Automotive Market Dynamics - The report highlights a softer-than-expected demand in the global Automotive market, increased competition in the China EV market, and incremental weakness in Industrial and Consumer end-markets [2][3]. - IHS has revised down its 2024 global automotive production forecast from 89.5 million to 88.5 million units, reflecting a 2.1% year-over-year decline [3][14]. Semiconductor Company Performance - Recent negative updates from various OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers indicate a general weakening in automotive demand, with significant EBIT downgrades reported by major automotive companies [8][9]. - The semiconductor companies covered have a higher revenue exposure to the Automotive end-market compared to the overall semiconductor industry [16][23]. Inventory and Production Adjustments - Inventory levels at major Automotive OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers remain elevated, with expectations of continued under-shipping of semiconductors into 2025 [24][31]. - The report notes mixed progress in inventory management among semiconductor companies, with Analog Devices successfully reducing inventory while others like Texas Instruments and ON Semiconductor have continued to build inventory [24][29]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The report has reduced revenue, margin, and earnings estimates across the semiconductor coverage universe, with average cuts of 1% for 2024, 4% for 2025, and 2% for 2026 [40][42]. - The updated estimates for the companies are below Street consensus across all five names, indicating a more conservative outlook [40][42].