摩根大通：中国房地产黄金周 - 房地产经纪人怎么说

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" (OW) rating to China Resources Land, China Resources Mixc, and Poly Property Services, indicating a positive outlook for these companies [12][19]. Core Insights - The sentiment in the property market has improved significantly during the Golden Week, with tier-1 cities experiencing a 50-100% increase in inquiries and transactions compared to September, which was a low point for sales [1][5]. - The report anticipates positive year-on-year growth in tier-1 cities for October and a notable narrowing of the year-on-year decline in nationwide data [1][6]. - The report suggests that the recent uptick in sales is likely a knee-jerk reaction to policy easing, and November sales will be crucial to determine if the market is truly bottoming out [1][2]. Summary by City - Shenzhen: Noted a significant increase in sentiment, with secondary transactions up over 200% year-on-year and primary sales up over 500% year-on-year during the Golden Week [3][6]. - Guangzhou: Primary sales subscriptions increased by 200-300% compared to previous weekends, while secondary sales rose by 20-30% compared to September [6][7]. - Shanghai: Improved sentiment with more inquiries, particularly for first-home demand, although non-core district projects showed weaker momentum [7][8]. - Beijing: Increased visitations to sales offices, but most were from previous visitors rather than new buyers [8]. - Chengdu: Overall sentiment was better than in previous months, with both inquiries and transactions improving by 50% [8]. - Changsha: Sentiment was reported as the best so far in 2024, exceeding September 2023 levels, but still not as strong as the post-reopening period in 1Q23 [8]. - Tier-3/4 Cities: Mixed responses with some sales managers reporting mild improvements while others noted no change, reflecting the targeted nature of recent easing measures [9]. Company Preferences - The report indicates a preference for property managers over state-owned enterprises (SOEs) due to better fundamentals and valuations, with specific recommendations for CR Land, CR Mixc, and Poly Property Services [1][12].