摩根士丹利：为 GenAI 提供动力：WULF 的近期交易以及我们为何仍然看好 AIHPC 转换

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the AI/HPC conversion opportunities for TeraWulf (WULF) following its recent transaction [1][2]. Core Insights - TeraWulf completed the sale of its 25% equity interest in the Nautilus Cryptomine Joint Venture for $92 million, which includes $85 million in cash and approximately $7 million in contributed miners and equipment [1]. - The transaction is expected to provide WULF with a 3.4x return on investment and will be used to expand its HPC/AI and Bitcoin mining operations at the Lake Mariner facility [1][2]. - The Lake Mariner site has a potential capacity of 500 MW, with an additional 178 MW expected to be available in the second half of 2025 [2]. Summary by Sections Transaction Overview - WULF's sale of its equity interest in Nautilus was valued at $92 million, with Talen Energy Corporation as the buyer [1]. - The transaction implies a payment of approximately $1.7 per watt in cash for the operational capacity [1]. Business Model Insights - WULF's data center business models focus on optimizing land, megawatts, and capital for long-term value creation [6]. - The indicative value creation analysis suggests an equity value creation of $5-8 per watt [7]. Financial Metrics - The report outlines various financial metrics, including a total data center revenue of $155 million per year and an operating margin of 70% [7]. - The construction cost per watt is estimated to be between $7 and $8, with a resulting enterprise value of approximately $1,085 million to $1,628 million [7]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a "time to power" dynamic influenced by protests regarding the Talen-Amazon data center contract at the Susquehanna nuclear plant [1]. - The market power price and realized ATC market power price are projected to increase over the next few years, enhancing WULF's revenue potential [10].