摩根大通：鸿海精密-第三季度营收超出预期，得益于 AI 服务器增长强劲以及 PC 平板电脑需求好转；OW

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" (OW) rating to Hon Hai Precision with a price target of NT$250.00 for June 2025 [3][7]. Core Insights - Hon Hai's 3Q24 revenue reached NT$1.854 trillion, up 19% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) and 6% ahead of JP Morgan estimates, driven by strong AI server growth and better demand for Macbooks and iPads [2][6]. - The company expects 4Q24 revenue to grow in the mid-teens QoQ, in line with market expectations, supported by the iPhone 16 ramp and continued AI server growth [2][6]. - The investment thesis highlights Hon Hai's position as a key beneficiary of rising AI server demand, particularly due to its sole supplier status in GPU modules and expanding presence in rack-level assembly [6][7]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - Hon Hai's September sales were NT$733 billion, reflecting a 34% month-over-month (MoM) increase and an 11% year-over-year (YoY) increase [2]. - The 3Q24 revenue was 6% above JP Morgan estimates and 4% above street estimates, with notable growth in the Cloud and Networking segments [2]. Future Outlook - Management guided for a mid-teens QoQ revenue growth in 4Q24, driven by seasonal demand for iPhones and AI server growth [2][6]. - The initial shipment of Blackwell GB200 server racks is expected to commence in late 4Q24, with a significant increase in AI revenue contribution projected from 13% in 2024 to 24% in 2025 [2][6]. Key Considerations - Key watch points include the ramp-up schedule for Blackwell GB200 server racks and the consumer electronics demand outlook for 4Q24 [2][6]. - The report emphasizes the potential for Hon Hai's consumer segment to benefit from an AI-induced replacement cycle for Apple's iPhone [7].