摩根士丹利：美国股票策略_每周预热_弹性就业数据保证更具周期性的转变

Investment Rating - The report upgrades cyclicals to Overweight (OW) versus defensives, specifically upgrading Financials to OW, downgrading Health Care to Equal Weight (EW), and downgrading Staples to Underweight (UW) [1][2][9]. Core Insights - The strength in the recent jobs report, with a payroll increase of 254K versus an estimate of 150K and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%, supports a more cyclical investment approach [2][4]. - The bond market's reaction, with rising yields, indicates increased confidence in a soft landing for the economy, which is favorable for cyclical stocks [5][22]. - The report emphasizes a shift from defensive stocks to cyclicals based on valuation levels and the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts [8][9]. Summary by Sections Labor Market and Economic Data - The jobs report showed a significant payroll beat and a downward revision of the previous month's payroll number, indicating economic resilience [2][4]. - The correlation between equity returns and bond yields has turned positive, suggesting that strong economic data will benefit quality cyclicals [4][5]. Sector Adjustments - Financials are upgraded to OW due to expected M&A activity and improved earnings revisions, while Health Care is downgraded to EW and Staples to UW due to high valuations and weak earnings revisions [12][22]. - Utilities remain an OW as a defensive hedge with growth exposure [9][22]. Large vs. Small Caps - The report takes profits on large-cap stocks, moving to neutral on large versus small caps, as the risk-reward for large caps becomes less attractive amid a rate-cutting cycle [25][26]. - Small caps are expected to perform better due to improving sentiment and economic indicators, with a focus on quality within this segment [25][26]. Earnings Outlook - The consensus for 3Q '24 EPS is down 4% over the past three months, but a mid-single-digit beat rate is anticipated due to lowered expectations [30]. - Margins are projected to drive EPS growth, with a focus on operational efficiency as a key factor [31][30].