高盛：中国外汇利率监测_财政政策放松乐观情绪推动收益率上升

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook on the industry, driven by expectations of significant fiscal policy easing and its potential impact on economic growth [5][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the anticipation of a RMB 2-3 trillion fiscal package, which is expected to stimulate the economy and address investor concerns regarding the property market and consumption [2][5]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming meetings and data releases from key government bodies, as these will provide early signals of policy implementation and its effects [3][4]. - The report notes that confirmed easing measures from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) could boost real GDP growth by approximately 40 basis points, contingent on the scale and targeted areas of fiscal spending [6][8]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy and Economic Outlook - The report discusses unprecedented forward guidance on reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and liquidity support, indicating a greater openness to easing from policymakers [6]. - It mentions that long-term bond yields have increased due to optimism surrounding fiscal policy easing, particularly following the Politburo meeting [8]. Foreign Exchange and Currency Dynamics - The report observes that the USD/CNY exchange rate has moved lower, reflecting improved market expectations for the Chinese economy amid signals of policy easing [6]. - It highlights the asymmetric risks associated with the CNY, noting that while significant fiscal policy easing could lead to a stronger CNY, potential depreciation risks remain if US tariffs increase [6]. Bond Market and Interest Rates - The report indicates that long-term cash bond yields rose sharply after the Politburo meeting, driven by expectations of a sizeable fiscal easing package [8]. - It anticipates further monetary policy easing in the coming year, which is expected to keep interbank liquidity ample and drive front-end rates lower [8]. Trade Balance and Economic Indicators - The report notes that China's trade balance improved significantly in August, with a higher goods trade surplus contributing to positive economic indicators [30][32]. - It also mentions that travel exports have rebounded to 116% of 2019 levels, while travel imports have slightly decreased [30][32].