摩根大通：每月轮胎评论，因为美国批发出货量在持续库存调整中保持疲软，原材料成本上涨而价格保持平稳

Investment Rating - The report indicates a challenging environment for the tire industry, with a negative outlook on wholesale shipments and operating earnings [1][3]. Core Insights - The U.S. tire industry is experiencing a decline in wholesale shipments, with a recent drop of -3.6% year-over-year, marking a significant shift after a year of growth [1][4]. - Original Equipment (OE) shipments have decreased by -9.0% year-over-year, while consumer replacement tire shipments fell by -2.4% year-over-year, reflecting a broader trend of inventory alignment among manufacturers [1][4]. - The report highlights that raw material costs are rising, with the J.P. Morgan Tire Commodities Index showing a modest increase of +2.0%, while tire pricing remains flat [3][4]. Summary by Sections U.S. Tire Prices - U.S. tire prices tracked flat month-over-month in August, with a year-over-year decline of -0.9% [4][6]. U.S. Light Vehicle Tire Shipments - Total light and commercial tire shipments fell -3.6% year-over-year in August, following a series of declines over the previous months [4][9]. U.S. Commercial Vehicle Tire Shipments - The report does not provide specific data on commercial vehicle tire shipments but indicates a general trend of softness in the market [1][4]. U.S. Vehicle Miles Driven - Vehicle miles driven increased by +0.6% year-over-year in July, slightly down from the previous month's +1.0% [4][21]. Raw Materials Price Trends - The weighted average cost of raw materials used in tire manufacturing rose by +2.0% month-over-month, driven by a +10.3% increase in natural rubber prices [3][4].