摩根士丹利：全球经济简报_每周世界观_日本通货再膨胀面临风险吗？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on Japan's reflation narrative, indicating that Japan is on track to exit the deflationary equilibrium [5]. Core Insights - Japan's inflation has shifted into positive territory after over two decades of zero nominal growth, with wage growth showing strength, although consumption lags behind, posing risks to sustained inflation [2][4]. - The balance between monetary and fiscal policy is crucial for the reflation narrative, with the new leadership under Prime Minister Ishiba raising questions about fiscal policy direction [3][5]. - The upcoming elections in Japan are expected to significantly influence the fiscal narrative and the reflation journey, with a commitment to maintaining supportive policies for wage growth [4][5]. Summary by Sections Economic Context - Japan has experienced a notable transition towards reflation, with inflation and wages moving positively, but the sustainability of this trend remains fragile [1][2]. - The Bank of Japan (BoJ) under Ueda has adopted a balanced approach to policy normalization without derailing the reflation narrative, although market volatility has been observed [2][3]. Political Landscape - Prime Minister Ishiba's fiscal stance has evolved, with commitments to the previous administration's policies, which may support the reflation narrative [3][5]. - The general election at the end of the month will be closely monitored for its impact on fiscal policy and the reflation journey [4][5]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that if the fiscal stance tightens post-elections, the BoJ may need to adjust its monetary policy to sustain the reflation trend [5]. - The delicate balance between monetary and fiscal policies will be critical for investors to watch in the lead-up to the elections, given the importance of Japanese assets in the global market narrative [5].