摩根士丹利：鉴于中国宽松政策和其他发展而做出的市场建议和指数目标变化

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating for India and Australia, while reducing the "Underweight" (UW) position for China to -50 basis points [2][4]. Core Insights - Geopolitical risks, the US election, and policy uncertainty for 2025 are significant concerns for the upcoming months [2]. - The report indicates a preference for defensive investments over cyclical ones due to concerns about oil prices and global growth risks [2]. - Japan's OW position is reduced to +50 basis points, reflecting sensitivity to global growth and oil price risks [2]. - The report increases UW positions on Korea and Taiwan to -150 basis points each, while adding to OW positions on Brazil and South Africa [2]. Summary by Sections Market Allocations - Current active allocations show Japan at +50 bps, China at -50 bps, India at +150 bps, Taiwan at -150 bps, and Australia at +50 bps [4]. - Brazil and South Africa have been added to OW positions, while Korea and Taiwan have been increased to UW positions [2][4]. Earnings and Valuations - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for various indices, with the MSCI EM index target price set at 1,410, reflecting a 20% increase [7][9]. - The report highlights that the consensus EPS growth for MSCI EM is projected at 13% for the upcoming year [9]. Economic Indicators - The report notes that China has re-rated significantly, now valued similarly to Germany and Singapore [21][22]. - It emphasizes the importance of the working-age population trends in India and China, with India showing favorable demographic trends [46][47].