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摩根大通：天然气研究 2025-26 年企业天然气价格 FCF 盈亏平衡（不包括对冲影响）
2024-10-11 14:13

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the natural gas industry or specific companies within it. Core Insights - The average pre-dividend free cash flow (FCF) break-even for the group in 2025 is approximately $2.37 per Mcf, with CTRA leading at $1.24 per Mcf, followed by EQT at $2.35 per Mcf and AR at $2.42 per Mcf [2] - In 2026, the pre-dividend FCF break-even remains at $2.37 per Mcf, with CTRA again leading at $1.36 per Mcf, followed by EQT at $2.20 per Mcf and AR at $2.31 per Mcf [2] - The post-dividend FCF break-even for the group in 2025 is around $2.65 per Mcf, with CTRA at $2.12 per Mcf, EQT at $2.53 per Mcf, and RRC at $2.76 per Mcf [2] - The post-dividend FCF break-even in 2026 increases to approximately $2.70 per Mcf, with CTRA at $2.14 per Mcf, EQT at $2.39 per Mcf, and RRC at $2.68 per Mcf [2] Natural Gas Production - Lower 48 gas production increased by 0.5% week-over-week to 100.9 Bcf/d, with notable growth from the Gulf of Mexico, Permian, and Oklahoma regions [3] - Overall, Lower 48 gas production averaged 101.0 Bcf/d in October to date, which is 0.4 Bcf/d above the September average [3] - Natural gas production in the Appalachia region was reported at 33.91 Bcf/d for October 2024 [29] Natural Gas Consumption - U.S. natural gas consumption increased by 4% year-over-year, driven by higher industrial and residential/commercial demand [3] - Total natural gas demand for the week was reported at 78.11 Bcf/d, a decrease from the previous week [51] - Residential/commercial demand was 9.56 Bcf/d, reflecting a 4% increase week-over-week [51] Natural Gas Prices - Henry Hub prices rose by 4% week-over-week to $2.75 per MMBtu [4] - Asian LNG prices decreased by 1% week-over-week to $13.10 per Mcf, while European gas prices increased by 2% to $12.91 per Mcf [4] - 2024 Henry Hub futures increased by 12% week-over-week to $3.18 per MMBtu [4] Natural Gas Storage - Natural gas storage levels are currently 6% above the five-year average, with a reported storage build of 55 Bcf [4] - Total gas storage stands at 3.55 Tcf, which is 3% above prior-year levels [4] Rig Count - The total U.S. gas rig count increased by 3 week-over-week to 102 rigs, with increases in both the Appalachia and Haynesville basins [4]