摩根士丹利：中国工业_ 3Q24 预览 - 建筑机械

Investment Rating - The overall industry investment rating is "Attractive" [6]. Core Insights - The construction machinery sector is experiencing a recovery, particularly in excavator sales, with expectations for positive sales growth in 3Q24 driven by overseas growth and a narrowing of domestic declines [3][4]. - Individual company performance varies significantly, with Hengli and Dingli expected to outperform their peers in terms of revenue and net profit growth [3][5]. Summary by Company Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co., Ltd. (601100.SS) - Expected to achieve revenue growth of 18% YoY and net profit growth of 30% in 3Q24, supported by strong domestic excavator recovery and market share gains in non-excavator machinery [3][10]. - Price target raised from Rmb63.00 to Rmb69.00, reflecting improved fundamentals and strong competitiveness [22]. Zhejiang Dingli Machinery Co., Ltd. (603338.SS) - Anticipated revenue growth of 34% YoY and net profit growth of 45% in 3Q24, driven by strong overseas sales [3][10]. - Price target increased from Rmb58.00 to Rmb69.00, aligning with its historical P/B average [25]. Sany Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. (600031.SZ) - Expected revenue growth of 10% YoY and net profit growth of 33% in 3Q24, benefiting from domestic excavator recovery and overseas demand [3][10]. - Price target raised from Rmb14.00 to Rmb20.00, reflecting stronger market share gains [14]. Zoomlion Heavy Industry (000157.SZ; 1157.HK) - Projected revenue growth of 2% YoY and a net profit decline of 8% in 3Q24, facing challenges from a significant domestic sales decline [3][10]. - Price target increased from HK$3.90 to HK$5.00 for H-shares and from Rmb6.00 to Rmb7.70 for A-shares, based on historical P/B metrics [17].