摩根士丹利：资本货物_海运订单追踪_2024 年下半年油轮市场前景疲软

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is In-Line [6]. Core Insights - The overall ship orders for 2024 are projected to annualize at approximately 2,300 ships, representing a 4% increase year-over-year. However, the contracting momentum is expected to weaken heading into 2025 [3][5]. - Tanker contracting has significantly declined, with a 70% decrease quarter-over-quarter and a 20% decrease year-over-year in 3Q24. This trend is attributed to both technical factors and fundamental issues such as lower tanker rates and oil price uncertainty [7][8]. - Despite the softer contracting data, consensus estimates for Alfa Laval's Marine orders have increased by 13% and 8% for 3Q24 and 4Q24, respectively, indicating potential order momentum [4][8]. Summary by Sections Ship Orders - In September 2024, a total of 90 vessels were ordered, with 380 vessels ordered in 3Q24, which is 50% lower than the 770 ships ordered in 2Q24 and 20% lower year-over-year [5]. - The contracting strength in 2024 has been primarily driven by containerships, gas carriers, and tankers, with containership contracting remaining robust [5][7]. Company-Specific Insights - For Alfa Laval, the Marine division faces challenges with tanker contracting rolling off, but the increase in high-margin Pumping Systems orders may support margins [4]. - Wartsila's order runway appears well covered by existing shipbuilding order books, particularly in the cruise and gas carrier segments, with CEO Håkan Agnevall indicating that Marine OE orders may not peak until 2027 [4][8]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the drivers for incremental order growth in gas carriers are not immediately apparent, and the overall vessel orders are unlikely to see growth in 2025 [7]. - The report notes that the average monthly contracting for gas carriers has slowed to approximately 6 ships, which is about 40% of the levels seen earlier in the year [7].