摩根士丹利：美国大选 – 关税对全球经济和市场的影响

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies covered [51]. Core Insights - The report discusses various tariff policy options, including potential increases in average tariff rates, which could lead to higher input costs across US industries [7][47]. - It highlights the potential economic implications of tariffs, indicating that tariffs aligned with Republican proposals could increase inflation by 0.9% while negatively impacting GDP growth by 1.4% [47][48]. - The report emphasizes the importance of US-Mexico policy alignment, noting that Mexico exports primarily intermediate goods to the US, which enhances US competitiveness [20][23]. Summary by Sections Tariff Policy Options - A variety of tariff proposals have been suggested, including 10% universal tariffs and targeted tariffs, with legal challenges being a key uncertainty for implementation [47]. Economic Impacts - Tariffs could lead to a near-term acceleration in prices, with a significant drag on GDP growth expected [10][47]. - The report estimates that monthly job gains could drop by 50-70k if tariffs are imposed [47]. Regional Implications - For Mexico, a 10% tariff is unlikely to significantly impact trade flows but could boost nearshoring activities [48]. - In response to potential tariffs, China may impose tariffs and non-tariff measures but is expected to focus on supply chain diversification rather than significant sanctions on US enterprises [48]. - The report anticipates a negative shock of 30 basis points on European GDP due to lower trade from US tariffs [49].