摩根士丹利：本周策略_难以实现硬着陆

Investment Rating - The report indicates a preference for maturities inside 15 years, suggesting a cautious approach to the current market conditions [3][4]. Core Insights - The report forecasts a supply of $28 billion over the next three weeks, with net odd lot demand rising to over $300 million per day, which is expected to support tighter spreads [3][4]. - Money fund demand remains healthy, and there is an expectation that SIFMA may tighten this week [3]. - Credit quality appears stable, with positive early indicators for college enrollments, which should support mid-tier education credit [4][29]. - Life care facilities have outperformed high-yield indices by nearly 400 basis points this year, indicating strong demand in the senior living sector [33][35]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand - A forecast of $28 billion in supply over the next three weeks is noted, with a range of $24-32 billion [3]. - Net odd lot demand has increased to over $300 million per day, which is anticipated to support tighter spreads [3]. - Money fund demand is healthy, and SIFMA is expected to tighten this week [3]. Market Conditions - The report suggests that October is looking positive, with expectations of positive excess returns compared to September, which posted zero excess returns [3]. - The report emphasizes a cautious approach to chasing tighter spreads, indicating a belief that spreads may remain in a narrow range [5]. Credit Quality - Credit quality remains stable, with early enrollment data for K-12 and higher education showing positive trends, which should support mid-tier education credit [4][29]. - The report highlights that life care facilities have significantly outperformed high-yield indices, suggesting strong demand in the senior living sector [33][35]. Dealer Positioning - Dealer balance sheets have decreased across most rating and sector buckets, indicating a cautious stance in the market [3][21]. - The report notes that most active mutual funds remain quiet compared to previous years, which contributes to a cautious outlook on lower-quality names [5].