社会服务业三季度业绩前瞻：旺季释放利润弹性，关注需求端改善拐点

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the social services sector, indicating an expectation of outperforming the overall market [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong performance forecast for the third quarter of 2024, particularly in the tourism sector, with various companies expected to show revenue growth and profitability improvements [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of leading hotel chains despite slight price pressures due to increased supply, and the growing importance of human resource service companies under supportive employment policies [3][5]. Summary by Category Tourism Attractions - Jiuhua Tourism is expected to achieve revenue of 181-196 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 0%-8%, with net profit of 42-45 million yuan, up 5%-11% [2]. - Huangshan Tourism is projected to generate revenue of 627-645 million yuan, a 5%-8% increase, with net profit expected to be 202-214 million yuan, showing a slight decline of -3% to 3% [2]. - Changbai Mountain is forecasted to have revenue of 366-383 million yuan, reflecting an 11%-16% growth, and net profit of 160-167 million yuan, up 15%-20% [2]. - Other attractions like Tianmu Lake and Songcheng Performing Arts are also expected to show varied performance, with some experiencing slight declines in revenue [2]. Hotels - Huazhu is anticipated to report revenue of 6.414-6.602 billion yuan, a 2%-5% increase, and adjusted net profit of 1.404-1.471 billion yuan, up 5%-10% [3]. - Shoulu Hotel is expected to achieve revenue of 2.418-2.487 billion yuan, a growth of 5%-8%, with net profit of 224-237 million yuan, up 3%-10% [3]. - Jinjiang Hotels is projected to have revenue of 4.156-4.364 billion yuan, a 0%-5% increase, and net profit of 465-488 million yuan, up 3%-8% [3]. Duty-Free - China Duty-Free is expected to see revenue decline to 12.826-13.580 billion yuan, a decrease of 10%-15%, with net profit projected at 1.207-1.274 billion yuan, down 5%-10% [3]. - Wangfujing is forecasted to maintain revenue around 2.741-2.885 billion yuan, with a slight decline in net profit [3]. Exhibition - Miao Exhibition is expected to achieve significant growth, with revenue projected at 168-174 million yuan, a 45%-50% increase, and net profit expected to rise dramatically by 171%-262% [3]. - Lansheng Co. is anticipated to have stable performance with revenue growth of 5% [3]. Human Resource Services - Keri International is expected to report revenue of 2.537-2.658 billion yuan, a 5%-10% increase, with net profit growth of 8%-10% [3]. - Beijing Human Resources is projected to maintain revenue around 9.555-10.033 billion yuan, with a slight increase in net profit [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the exhibition sector like Miao Exhibition and Lansheng Co., human resource services like Keri International and Beijing Human Resources, tourism companies like Jiuhua Tourism and Changbai Mountain, and hotels such as Shoulu Hotel and Huazhu [3].