2024-10-12 00:37Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [7] Core Views - Tencent is expected to achieve operating revenue of 165.8 billion RMB in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7%, and an adjusted net profit of 53.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 19% [4] - Recent positive policy signals have boosted capital market sentiment, enhancing Tencent's company valuation; the fundamental outlook remains relatively strong, driven by growth in gaming and video accounts [4] - Tencent has repurchased 250 million shares this year, totaling 88.3 billion HKD, leading to a continuous decrease in total share capital [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected operating revenue for Tencent is as follows: - 2024E: 655.8 billion RMB - 2025E: 717.7 billion RMB - 2026E: 770.1 billion RMB [10] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2024E: 215.8 billion RMB - 2025E: 241.6 billion RMB - 2026E: 273.2 billion RMB [10] Segment Performance - Gaming revenue is expected to grow by 12% year-on-year in Q3 2024, with both domestic and overseas markets showing double-digit growth [4] - Advertising revenue is projected to increase by 15% year-on-year in Q3 2024, with video accounts being a core growth driver [4] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue is expected to grow by 2% year-on-year in Q3 2024 [4] Valuation - The target market capitalization has been raised from 4285.4 billion RMB to 4719.0 billion RMB, corresponding to a target price of 559 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 27% [7] - The report outlines a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation approach, estimating the total market value at 4719.0 billion RMB based on various business segments [9]