美国9月CPI点评：核心商品通胀有所反弹

Economic Indicators - The U.S. September CPI year-on-year is 2.4%, down from 2.5% in August, while month-on-month remains at 0.2%[1] - Core CPI year-on-year increased to 3.3% from 3.2%, with a month-on-month change of 0.3%[1] - Food prices rose by 0.4% month-on-month, while energy prices decreased by 1.9%[1] Inflation Trends - Core goods inflation month-on-month increased by 0.2%, with a year-on-year decline of 1.2%[1] - Used car prices rose by 1.3% month-on-month, while clothing prices increased by 0.8%[1] - Core services inflation remained stable at 0.4% month-on-month, but housing components showed a decline[1] Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 0.2 basis points to 4.073%[1] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.05%, while gold and silver prices increased by 0.85% and 2.17%, respectively[1] Federal Reserve Outlook - The September CPI data is expected to have limited impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with labor market data being a more significant factor[1] - There is an expectation of two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each in the remaining meetings of the year, potentially continuing into 2025[1] Risks and Considerations - The report highlights risks related to unexpected Federal Reserve monetary policy changes and geopolitical conflicts[1]