机械设备行业专题研究：聚焦机械行业超跌反弹机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the mechanical equipment industry [7]. Core Insights - The mechanical industry is expected to benefit from a series of recent policies aimed at stimulating the economy, focusing on three main investment themes: (1) interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions are likely to enhance liquidity and valuation recovery for undervalued sectors, particularly in photovoltaic and lithium battery equipment; (2) policies to stabilize the real estate market and promote economic stability, along with large-scale equipment upgrades, are expected to support the recovery of engineering machinery and general cyclical sectors; (3) the combination of loose liquidity and favorable policies is enhancing the cost-effectiveness of growth sectors, particularly humanoid robots [3][11]. Summary by Sections 1. High Return Potential from Low Valuations - The report identifies significant price corrections in specialized equipment, particularly in photovoltaic and lithium battery sectors, with some stocks trading below the 20th percentile of their five-year PE ratios and PB ratios approaching 0%, indicating substantial upside potential [11][15]. - The report highlights that the photovoltaic equipment sector has seen a price drop of approximately 70% since its peak in 2020, suggesting a potential for recovery as market conditions improve [15][17]. 2. Cyclical Recovery in Engineering and General Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is showing signs of recovery, with domestic excavator sales increasing by 18.1% year-on-year in August 2024, indicating a rebound in demand [26][32]. - The general machinery sector is expected to benefit from improved economic policies, with the PMI index showing marginal improvement, suggesting a potential recovery in demand for machine tools and related equipment [36][39]. 3. Thematic Investment Opportunities - The humanoid robot sector is gaining attention following Tesla's recent announcements, with expectations for significant advancements and production scaling by 2025, presenting investment opportunities in core component localization [11][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring developments in solid-state battery technology, which is anticipated to drive new capital expenditures as the industry transitions from liquid to solid-state batteries [21][22]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: (1) low valuation recovery in photovoltaic and lithium battery equipment; (2) cyclical recovery in engineering and general machinery; (3) thematic investments in humanoid robots [11][12][21]. - Specific stock recommendations include: - Photovoltaic equipment: Aotewei, High Measurement Shares - Lithium battery equipment: Xian Dao Intelligent, Hangke Technology - Engineering machinery: Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG Machinery - General machinery: Lingxiao Pump Industry, Zhongjin Environment [11][12][21].