财政部国新办发布会点评：蓄力充足，增量可期

Group 1: Economic Policy Insights - The Ministry of Finance plans to expand the scope of debt fund usage, highlighting a significant debt replacement initiative expected soon[1] - The government aims to enhance counter-cyclical fiscal policy to promote high-quality economic development, ensuring necessary fiscal expenditures[1] - By mid-2024, the growth rates of disposable income, net operating income, and net property income per capita have declined by 1.0%, 0.4%, and 1.1% respectively compared to Q1[1] Group 2: Local Government Debt Management - In the first eight months of 2024, local government fund budget revenue reached CNY 23,904 billion, a 52.9% decline compared to the same period in 2021[1] - Local government fund budget expenditures amounted to CNY 46,303 billion, down 19.6% from 2021, resulting in a budget gap exceeding CNY 2 trillion[1] - The Ministry of Finance has allocated over CNY 2.2 trillion in local government bond quotas for 2023 and CNY 1.2 trillion for 2024 to support the resolution of hidden local debt[1] Group 3: Special Bonds and Banking Sector Support - The issuance of special bonds will be used to supplement the core Tier 1 capital of major state-owned commercial banks, with an average core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio of 12.3% as of June 2024[1] - The Ministry of Finance is expected to allow special bond funds to be used for purchasing existing residential properties, aiming to improve the structure of the domestic real estate market[1] Group 4: Risk Considerations - There are risks associated with strong global inflation resilience, increasing recession expectations in Europe and the U.S., and escalating geopolitical complexities[1]