通信行业Q4投资策略：聚焦AI和国产算力产业演进

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment recommendation of "Outperform the Market" for the communication industry [6]. Core Insights - The communication industry is expected to see a steady improvement in profitability, driven by advancements in AI and domestic computing power [3][10]. - The introduction of Nvidia's GB200 chip is anticipated to lead the upgrade of AI optical modules from 800G to 1.6T, with multi-data center collaborative training becoming mainstream [10][16]. - Government policies are fostering orderly development in the industry, with operators and internet companies focusing on AI computing power investments [10][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Communication Industry Fundamentals - The communication sector's revenue for H1 2024 reached 13,369.66 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.85%, while net profit rose by 6.92% to 1,271.80 billion [10][13]. - Excluding the three major operators and ZTE, revenue was 2,644.21 billion, up 7.72%, and net profit was 133.95 billion, up 14.46% [10][13]. - The overall fundamentals of the communication industry are expected to remain stable, with significant advantages in user scale for China Mobile and continued growth for Dekoli and Runze Technology [10][13][14]. 2. Industry Outlook and Investment Recommendations - AI is accelerating the development of the communication industry, with Nvidia's GB200 chip expected to enhance AI capabilities significantly [16][18]. - Investment suggestions include focusing on the DCI track, particularly recommending Dekoli, and considering the valuation of core optical module companies like Zhongji Xuchuang [24][25]. - The digital economy sector is projected to provide high certainty in performance, with recommendations for China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom, and Runze Technology [24][25]. 3. Policy and Investment Trends - Since 2024, the government has introduced several policies related to digital economy and AI, which are expected to promote industry standards and healthy development [18][19]. - In 2024, China Mobile plans to invest 47.5 billion in computing networks, a 21.48% increase, while China Telecom's investment in cloud and computing is expected to be 18 billion, a decrease of 7.69% [22][23]. - Major internet companies are also increasing their AI capital expenditures, with Tencent's H1 2024 capital expenditure reaching 23.088 billion, a 176.04% increase [22][24].