商业零售行业2024年三季报业绩前瞻：内需平稳，重视电商增长韧性

Investment Rating - The report rates the commercial retail industry as "Positive" for investment [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights stable domestic demand and emphasizes the resilience of e-commerce growth [2]. - It notes that retail sales in July and August 2024 showed a year-on-year growth of 2.7% and 2.1%, respectively, indicating a moderate growth trend [2]. - E-commerce penetration continues to rise, with online retail sales of physical goods achieving a growth rate of 8.1% and 4.1% in July and August 2024, respectively, outperforming overall retail sales growth [2]. Summary by Sections E-commerce Sector - Alibaba's GMV growth rate in Q3 2024 is expected to consolidate further, with logistics and payment ecosystems gradually integrating [2]. - JD.com is projected to maintain a high-quality growth trend, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 3.9% to 257.3 billion yuan in Q3 2024 [2]. - Meituan's core local business is expected to grow by 20% year-on-year in Q3 2024, reaching 91.7 billion yuan [2]. Jewelry Sector - Lao Feng Xiang is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 0%-5% year-on-year in Q3 2024, with profits projected to decline by 5% to 5% [2]. - Zhou Daxing is focusing on quality and efficiency, with revenue expected to decline by 5% to 5% in Q2 2024 [2]. - Cai Bai Co. anticipates a revenue increase of 5%-15% in Q3 2024, driven by strong demand for investment gold bars [2]. Supermarket and Department Store Sector - Yonghui Supermarket is expected to see a revenue decline of 5%-10% in Q3 2024 due to store closures, despite improvements from supply chain reforms [2]. - Chongqing Department Store is transitioning to a "fresh + discount" model, with a projected revenue decline of 3%-8% in Q3 2024 [2]. - Jia Jia Yue is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 0%-5% in Q3 2024, benefiting from successful snack store franchises [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on e-commerce platforms like Alibaba, JD.com, Meituan, and Pinduoduo due to improving fundamentals and liquidity [2]. - In the jewelry sector, it suggests investing in resilient brands such as Lao Feng Xiang, Cai Bai Co., and Zhou Daxing [2]. - For supermarkets and department stores, it recommends Yonghui Supermarket, Chongqing Department Store, and Jia Jia Yue as they adapt to new business models and supply chain adjustments [2].