金属&新材料行业周报：财政政策逆周期调节预期强化，看好铜铝优质成长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the metals and new materials industry, particularly favoring copper and aluminum for their quality growth potential [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights expectations for counter-cyclical fiscal policy adjustments, which are anticipated to strengthen demand for copper and aluminum. It emphasizes the limited new supply of copper and the ongoing growth in demand from the new energy sector, suggesting a long-term bullish trend for copper prices [5][4]. - The report also notes that the recent decline in metal prices is temporary, with expectations of recovery driven by seasonal demand and supply adjustments [5][4]. Weekly Market Review - The report provides a weekly market review indicating that the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.56%, while the non-ferrous metals index dropped by 6.24%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.98 percentage points. Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has risen by 6.67%, still lagging behind the CSI 300 Index by 6.62 percentage points [4][10]. - Specific declines in metal prices include a 6.04% drop in copper and a 5.01% drop in aluminum compared to the previous week [11][4]. Price Changes - The report details price changes for various metals, noting a decrease in LME copper prices by 1.53% and aluminum prices by 0.77% week-on-week. Additionally, it highlights the price movements of lithium and cobalt, with battery-grade lithium carbonate increasing by 2.60% [4][14]. - The report also mentions that the domestic price of copper fell by 1.95%, while aluminum saw a slight increase of 1.57% [14][4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The report discusses supply constraints for copper, with expectations of limited new supply from global copper mines in 2024-2025. It also highlights the ongoing demand growth from the new energy sector, which is expected to support copper prices in the long run [5][4]. - For aluminum, the report anticipates that domestic production will peak in 2024, with slow overseas capacity additions, further supporting price stability [5][4]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their supply-demand dynamics, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Aluminum, among others, for their potential to benefit from the expected market conditions [5][4]. - It also suggests investing in companies within the stable supply-demand framework of the new energy manufacturing sector, such as Huafeng Aluminum and Baowu Magnesium [5][4].