电子行业周报：AI驱动，存储温和复苏

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on AI terminals and the semiconductor cycle recovery opportunities [10][33]. Core Insights - The global storage chip industry is experiencing cyclical fluctuations, typically on a four-year cycle. The market is at the bottom of the cycle in 2023, with a significant recovery expected in 2024 due to supply reductions and increased AI demand. The recovery in this cycle is anticipated to be faster than previous cycles [3][10]. - By 2025, the storage chip industry is expected to remain in an upward cycle, although the marginal effects of AI demand may weaken, leading to a moderate recovery trend [10][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Terminal Demand Recovery and AI as a Key Driver - The storage chip market is projected to recover significantly in 2024, benefiting from supply cuts and rising AI demand. The recovery is expected to be quicker than in previous cycles [10][14]. - The three main applications for storage chips—mobile phones, PCs, and servers—are showing signs of moderate recovery [10][14]. 2. Investment Recommendations - Focus on the computing power supply chain, as the demand for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is expected to grow alongside AI applications [33]. - The introduction of AI hardware products, such as AI PCs and AI smartphones, is anticipated to boost consumer electronics sales, suggesting a focus on the AI hardware and storage supply chain [34]. - The semiconductor economic cycle is expected to rebound in 2024, with recommendations to pay attention to domestic IC manufacturing chains [35]. 3. Price Trends - DRAM and NAND prices are experiencing short-term pressure but are expected to have long-term growth potential. Current market conditions show a slight decline in spot prices, while contract prices remain relatively high [24][28]. - The average contract price for traditional DRAM is expected to rise by 8%-13% in Q3 2024, with a narrowing increase of 3%-8% in Q4 2024 [28][29].