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电子10月周报：AI驱动，存储温和复苏
Guolian Securities·2024-10-13 11:30

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the storage chip industry, suggesting a recovery phase starting in 2024 and continuing into 2025, with a recommendation to focus on AI-related terminals and semiconductor cycle recovery opportunities [10][33]. Core Insights - The global storage chip market is currently at the bottom of its cycle in 2023, but is expected to see a significant rebound in 2024 due to supply reductions and increased AI demand. The recovery is anticipated to be faster than previous cycles [3][10]. - The demand for storage applications in smartphones, PCs, and servers is showing signs of moderate recovery, with AI continuing to be a major driving force [10][14]. - The report highlights that the smartphone market is expected to experience a mild recovery post-2025, with global smartphone shipments projected to grow at a rate of 1.7% to 2.5% from 2025 to 2028 [19]. - Server shipments are forecasted to recover in 2024, driven primarily by AI, with an estimated 12.1% of server shipments being AI servers [20]. - The PC market has shown growth for four consecutive quarters, with a projected increase in demand due to the upcoming end of Windows 10 support in 2025 [20][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Terminal Demand Recovery and AI as a Driving Force - The storage chip industry is expected to remain in an upward cycle through 2025, with a moderate recovery trend as AI demand's marginal effects diminish [14]. - The three main applications for DRAM and NAND are smartphones, PCs, and servers, collectively accounting for over 80% of the market [15]. 2. Investment Recommendations - Focus on the computing power supply chain, as the demand for HBM is expected to grow alongside AI applications [33]. - Attention should be given to edge AI storage-related companies, as new AI hardware products are being launched, which may boost consumer electronics sales [34]. - The semiconductor economic cycle is anticipated to rebound in 2024, with a recommendation to focus on domestic IC manufacturing chains [35].