摩根士丹利：中国能源与化工_3Q24预览

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In-Line" [6]. Core Insights - The report anticipates a low-teens decline in earnings for PetroChina and CNOOC in 3Q24, with a more significant drop for Sinopec due to inventory loss [2][3]. - PetroChina is expected to outperform peers despite the decline, with a projected 7.8% dividend yield based on a flat year-over-year payout ratio [3]. - Sinopec's earnings are negatively impacted by inventory loss and intensified price competition in its downstream business, with a dividend yield of 6.5% based on current earnings forecasts [3]. - CNOOC is expected to maintain strong cost discipline and volume trajectory, but earnings are projected to decline by double digits due to falling crude oil prices [4]. - Wanhua Chemical's net profit has been stable but may see a decline in 3Q24 due to weak performance in TDI and commodity petrochemical products [4][5]. Summary by Company PetroChina - Anticipated low-teens decline in net profit for 3Q24, but expected to outperform peers [3]. - Downstream performance likely affected by inventory loss, though better than peers due to diversified feedstock sources [2]. Sinopec - Earnings negatively impacted by inventory loss and limited improvements in refined oil demand [3]. - Stock offers a 6.5% dividend yield based on current earnings forecast [3]. CNOOC - Expected to show outstanding cost discipline and volume trajectory, but earnings projected to decline due to crude oil price corrections [4]. Wanhua Chemical - Net profit has been stable around Rmb4 billion per quarter, but potential downside in 3Q24 due to weak TDI and commodity petrochemical product performance [4][5].