摩根士丹利：半导体生产设备_Blackwell 收入增长及其对日本 SPE 的影响

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the Semiconductor Production Equipment industry in Japan is classified as Attractive [2][3]. Core Insights - The global technology team anticipates that NVIDIA's Blackwell production revenue may exceed that of Hopper in the first quarter of 2025, which could significantly benefit Japanese SPE companies such as Advantest and DISCO [2][3]. - The transition to Blackwell is expected to increase demand for high-speed SoC testers, with Advantest holding a dominant position in the AI GPU tester market [2][3]. - Advantest is projected to derive approximately 45% of its total tester sales from AI GPUs and HBM by the fiscal year ending March 2025, while DISCO is expected to see around 25% from similar sources [3]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Production Equipment Market - The shift to Blackwell will require longer testing times, leading to increased demand for high-speed SoC testers [2][3]. - Blackwell's chip output is estimated to reach 250-300k units in Q4 2024, generating revenue between $5-10 billion, with projections of 750-800k units in Q1 2025, nearly tripling from the previous quarter [2][3]. - The price of Blackwell chips is expected to be 60-70% higher than that of Hopper, contributing to the anticipated revenue surpassing [2][3]. Company-Specific Insights - Advantest is expected to have a high exposure (approximately 45%) to AI GPUs and HBM in the fiscal year ending March 2025, while DISCO is projected to have around 25% [3]. - Advantest dominates the HBM tester market, DISCO leads in the grinder market, and Tokyo Electron is the key player in wafer bonders and debonders [3].