高盛：中国化妆品：双十一把脉：专家点评：预计竞争减弱、成本下降将带来稳定增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for companies like Giant and Proya in the cosmetics industry [4][16]. Core Insights - The cosmetics industry in China is expected to see a GMV growth of approximately 10% year-over-year during the Double 11 Shopping Festival, with local brands outperforming global counterparts [1][5]. - The competition is stabilizing with tapering price competition and increased platform support for brands [2][9]. - Local brands are gaining more traffic compared to private labels and multinational corporations (MNCs) [10][17]. Summary by Sections GMV Growth Expectations - Overall cosmetics GMV is projected to grow around 10% year-over-year during this year's Double 11, with local brands leading the growth [1][5]. - By platform, Taobao/Tmall targets a GMV of RMB 65-70 billion with a growth of 7-8%, while Douyin aims for RMB 38-39 billion with over 40% growth [5][8]. - Top local brands like Proya, Comfy, and Winona are expected to achieve growth rates of 40-50%, HDD-100%+, and 20-30% respectively, while most MNC brands are likely to see muted growth of 5-10% [7][8]. Industry Trends and Platform Policies - The Double 11 event this year will last 26-34 days, longer than previous years, with platforms starting promotions earlier [9][11]. - Price competition remains stable compared to last year, with platforms providing stronger support to merchants, including covering return costs and offering significant subsidies [10][9]. - The return rate is expected to be higher at 22-23%, but brands will face less cost pressure due to new platform policies [4][10]. Company-Specific Insights - Proya's short-term performance is viewed positively due to its well-structured management, though long-term challenges exist in expanding into new categories [16][17]. - Giant is expected to perform well during Double 11, benefiting from a strong brand presence in the collagen market [17]. - Botanee's turnaround potential is viewed conservatively, with success hinging on the performance of its whitening product during the event [17][16].