摩根大通：ASML 市场过于悲观，因为 ASML 可能在 25 年增长近 25%，在 26 年增长两位数

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to ASML with a price target of €1,100.00 for December 2025 [4][21]. Core Insights - The market sentiment towards ASML has become overly bearish, primarily due to Intel's capex cuts, slow recovery in the consumer semiconductor market, and concerns regarding China restrictions. However, the long-term outlook remains positive with expected growth of approximately 25% in 2025 and double-digit growth in 2026 [1][22]. - The report emphasizes that lithography intensity in memory is set to rise due to the shift towards High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), which is lithography-centric, and the anticipated transition to High NA EUV technology in 2026 [1][22]. - ASML's revenue guidance for 2025 is projected to be between €30 billion and €40 billion, with current market expectations leaning towards the mid-point of €33-€36 billion [1][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Revenue and Orders Expectations - ASML is expected to report 3Q24 revenue of €7 billion, reflecting a 12.2% quarter-over-quarter growth and a 4.9% year-over-year growth, slightly below consensus estimates [2][14]. - The anticipated 3Q24 orders are projected at €5 billion, which is 9.2% below consensus [2][14]. 2. Market Position and Valuation - ASML's P/E premium over US peers is near a 10-year low, currently at approximately 35%, indicating a market perception that lithography intensity may decline [2][17]. - The report argues that the current bearish sentiment is short-term, as the demand for HBM and High NA EUV will drive future growth [17][22]. 3. Growth Drivers - The transition to EUV technology in both logic and DRAM sectors is expected to increase ASML's market share in lithography to over 80-89% [22][26]. - The report highlights that the shift from NAND to HBM as the growth memory will positively impact lithography intensity, as HBM is more lithography-intensive [11][12]. 4. Financial Adjustments - The report revises FY25 revenue estimates down by 7% due to Intel's capex cuts and potential delays in memory equipment deliveries, while FY26 estimates remain unchanged [15][27]. - The adjusted EPS for FY25 is expected to decline by 6%, reflecting the lower revenue estimates [15][27]. 5. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term challenges, ASML is expected to see year-on-year growth in FY26, with EPS likely exceeding €30 [10][12]. - The report suggests that if ASML's guidance for FY25 is not at the low end, the market will shift focus to FY26, which is anticipated to show significant growth [10][12].