高盛：中国运动服装_专家会议要点_节日销售健康且略有加速；折扣值得关注

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports Products is "Buy" with a target price of HK$95.00 [17] Core Insights - The sportswear industry in China is experiencing a deceleration in consumption growth as the economy transitions, with a sustainable shift towards value-focus and an increasing global presence [1] - Holiday sales showed healthy performance with double-digit growth across brands, slightly accelerating from September [1][2] - The distributor anticipates an expansion of discounts in Q4 due to slower-than-expected sales in the previous months and inventory control [1][6] Sales Performance - In Q3 2024, sales were under pressure with growth rates averaging in the mid-single to high-single digits, but September saw a pickup to high-single to low-double digits [1] - National Day holiday sales were healthy, reflecting low-double-digit growth across brands, indicating a marginal acceleration compared to September [1][2] - The distributor's full-year 2024 sales target has been revised to 11-13%, with specific brand performance varying [5][6] Inventory Management - Nike's inventory levels have shown a sequential upward trend due to lower-than-expected new product sales, while adidas and Anta have seen improvements in inventory levels [1][7] - Li Ning maintains a healthy inventory level with effective sell-in control, while Xtep's inventory is slightly higher due to increased competition in lower-tier cities [7][8] Market Trends - There is a clear trend of brands enhancing penetration into lower-tier cities, with expectations of escalating competition in these markets next year [1][8] - The distributor notes that lower-tier city consumers are increasingly focused on high-quality and unique products, presenting share gain opportunities for leading brands [8] Future Outlook - For 2025, the distributor expects growth targets for large brands to be in the mid-single to mid-teens percentage year-over-year, while niche brands may achieve 20-30% growth on a low base [6] - The competition is anticipated to intensify across all aspects, with disciplined channel expansion remaining a priority [6]