摩根士丹利：亚洲经济_观点_中国_为何不愿实施强有力的财政宽松政策_

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Viewpoints - The primary issue affecting the economy is the debt-deflation loop, necessitating a fiscal package of Rmb10 trillion to support consumption and clear property inventory, but policymakers are hesitant due to high public debt and declining revenues [3][7][20] - The public debt to GDP ratio has risen sharply from 73% in 2019 to an estimated 102% as of Q2 2024, leading to a cautious approach from policymakers regarding fiscal easing [10][8] - Tax revenues have declined significantly, with government budget revenues dropping from 22.4% of GDP pre-COVID to 18.1% currently, exacerbated by weak corporate profitability and slowing household income growth [12][26] - The policy preference remains focused on investment rather than consumption, with increased investments in manufacturing and infrastructure filling the demand gap left by the property sector [27][39] Summary by Sections Fiscal Easing and Economic Conditions - Forceful fiscal easing is deemed necessary to exit the debt-deflation loop, but the scale of stimulus will be constrained by high public debt ratios and declining revenues [3][7] - Limited fiscal measures are expected in the near term, with a potential trigger for more aggressive easing if social dynamics weaken significantly [3][20] Public Debt and Revenue Trends - Public debt to GDP has increased significantly, raising concerns about the sustainability of fiscal policies [10][8] - Tax revenue growth has slowed, with tax revenue to GDP declining from 17% in 2016-2019 to 13.5% currently, indicating a constrained fiscal environment [12][26] Investment vs. Consumption - Policymakers prefer to invest rather than boost consumption, viewing investment as more productive and beneficial for long-term growth [27][39] - The current approach of using excess investment to support GDP growth risks worsening deflationary pressures and increasing debt to GDP ratios [34][39] Future Scenarios - Three potential scenarios for future economic policy are outlined: 1. Continuing to target 4.5-5% real GDP growth with a bias towards investment, risking worsening deflation [34] 2. Tolerating a sharp slowdown in GDP growth to 1-2%, which may lead to milder deflationary pressures [35] 3. Shifting focus to boost consumption through social spending and inventory clearing, which could stabilize debt to GDP and improve corporate returns [39][40]