高盛： CATL (.SZ)_全球电气化的关键推动者和先驱 [演示文稿]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to CATL and includes it in the APAC Conviction List with a 12-month target price of RMB 307 [21][30]. Core Insights - CATL is positioned as a key enabler and pioneer in global electrification, maintaining a strong competitive edge through manufacturing strengths, R&D effectiveness, and ecosystem advantages [3][12][14]. - The company captures approximately 50% of EBITDA in the global battery industry, indicating its dominant market position [18]. Manufacturing Strengths - CATL has the lowest warranty compensation ratio among peers, reflecting solid quality performance [3]. - The company faces challenges in balancing volume, quality, and flexibility in manufacturing, particularly in customizing battery products [5]. R&D Effectiveness - CATL is expected to contribute around 40% of R&D spending in the global battery industry, showcasing its commitment to innovation [12]. - The company has developed a robust R&D pipeline, which is crucial for maintaining its competitive advantage [12]. Ecosystem Strengths - CATL benefits from high-quality, high-frequency feedback mechanisms that facilitate continuous product iteration [14]. Financial Performance and Projections - In various scenarios, CATL's revenue CAGR is projected at 18.6% in the base case, with a potential upside of 44% in a blue-sky scenario [20]. - The report outlines a significant expected growth in net profit CAGR at 25.2% under the base case [20]. Valuation Methodology - The target price of RMB 307 is derived from a combination of near-term and long-term valuations, using a 3M average P/E of 15.6x for 2024-25E and a long-term P/E of 15x for 2030E [21].