Investment Rating - The investment rating for COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation is Equal-weight with a price target of Rmb17.10 [1][2][3]. Core Views - The report anticipates an up-cycle in the crude tanker market over the next two years, driven by increased Chinese demand and higher oil production [2][3]. - The price-to-book (P/B) multiples are expected to rise, with a target P/B of 1.4x for 2025, reflecting a bullish sentiment towards the tanker market [3][4]. - Earnings forecasts have been fine-tuned downwards by -4%, -1%, and -2% for the years 2024-2026, respectively, following the 1H24 results [1][3]. Summary by Sections Earnings Forecasts - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation are projected to be Rmb0.70 for FY 2024, Rmb1.03 for FY 2025, and Rmb1.10 for FY 2026 [1][4]. - The revenue is expected to grow from Rmb23,093.1 million in 2024 to Rmb28,718.0 million in 2025 [4]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a projected traffic growth of 7.3% in 2024, followed by 4.8% in both 2025 and 2026 [4]. - The average VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) gross profit per day is estimated to be US$21.2k/day for 2024 and US$23.3k/day for 2025 [3][4]. Risk and Reward Analysis - The report outlines a bull case price target of Rmb29.00, a base case of Rmb16.50, and a bear case of Rmb7.90 for COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation [3][4]. - The consensus rating distribution indicates that 79% of analysts are overweight on the stock, while 21% are equal-weight [3][4].
摩根士丹利：中远海运能源运输_风险回报更新