摩根士丹利：大中华半导体_ WFE_进一步实体名单风险

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is In-Line, indicating that the performance of the industry is expected to be in line with the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12-18 months [4]. Core Insights - The report discusses the potential impact of export controls on Chinese DRAM projects, outlining three scenarios with varying implications for investment and market dynamics [4][5]. - Advanced packaging in China is likely to face setbacks due to restrictions on high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and related tools, which could reduce the serviceable available market (SAM) for back-end equipment vendors [5][6]. - The risk of foreign business loss is perceived to outweigh the opportunities in advanced packaging, particularly for companies like JCET, which derive a significant portion of their revenue from overseas customers [6][7]. Summary by Sections Export Controls and Scenarios - Scenario 1: Full restriction on Chinese DRAM projects could lead to substantial downside risks for investment in 2025, benefiting specialty DRAM players like NTC and PSMC [4]. - Scenario 2: Minor changes in export controls may have a headline negative impact but could be positive for Chinese WFE players, as local supply chains would be relied upon more heavily [4]. - Scenario 3: Not including Chinese DRAM projects in the export control list would be favorable for China's WFE players but detrimental to specialty DRAM players [4]. Advanced Packaging and Market Dynamics - The current export controls primarily target wafer front-end equipment, leaving back-end tools unrestricted, which may change if new restrictions are imposed [5]. - Companies like CXMT are collaborating with local firms to develop HBM, indicating a strong domestic market for back-end equipment despite potential restrictions [5]. - JCET's revenue from advanced packaging is less than 5% of its total revenue, highlighting the limited impact of this segment compared to its overall business [6]. Revenue Exposure and Market Share - In 1H24, China accounted for 36% of ASMPT's revenue, yet there have been no TCB shipments to China, indicating a significant market opportunity that remains untapped [7]. - CXMT's local supply share is only 20%, which is lower than its peers, suggesting a need for improvement in product quality to compete globally [3].