摩根士丹利：不锈钢_第三季度业绩信号混杂

Investment Rating - The stainless steel sector is rated as In-Line, with specific companies receiving varied ratings: Acerinox (Overweight), Aperam (Equal-weight), and Outokumpu (downgraded to Equal-weight) [6][27]. Core Insights - The report indicates a preference for carbon steel over stainless steel due to better risk-reward dynamics following China's policy changes, with expectations of delayed benefits for stainless steel [2][26]. - Q3 EBITDA is forecasted to remain stable, with a projected 7% increase in Q4 across the stainless sector [3]. - There are anticipated downgrades to 2024 consensus EBITDA for US-heavy companies like Acerinox and Outokumpu, with a similar trend expected for 2025 [3][40]. - The stainless sector is currently trading at an EV/normalized EBITDA of 3.7x, which is approximately a 40% discount to its long-term average of 6.1x, although earnings recovery remains muted [3][19]. Summary by Company Acerinox - Acerinox is expected to report Q3 EBITDA of €119 million, which is 7% below consensus estimates, with a forecast of €109 million for Q4 [33][40]. - The company is viewed positively due to its focus on alloys, which are expected to contribute approximately 30% of EBITDA once the Haynes acquisition is finalized [3][29]. Aperam - Aperam's Q3 EBITDA is forecasted at €93 million, in line with consensus, with a projected increase in net debt to €651 million [35][40]. - The outlook for Q4 EBITDA is also stable, with expectations of €105 million, consistent with consensus [35]. Outokumpu - Outokumpu is projected to report Q3 EBITDA of €61 million, significantly below consensus estimates of €75 million, with a cautious outlook for Q4 at €77 million [37][40]. - The company has faced operational challenges and is expected to experience the greatest earnings pressure among its peers [27][25]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that EU and US stainless spreads are currently below historical averages, which may limit earnings recovery prospects [8]. - EU stainless imports are noted to be below historical levels, but there are indications of a potential increase post-summer [10]. - Chinese stainless inventories remain elevated due to persistent oversupply, impacting market dynamics [14].