高盛：CEEMEA 观点_增长轮换和应对地缘政治风险

Investment Rating - The report indicates a rotation in growth across the CEEMEA region, with Turkey and Russia weakening while CEE and South Africa show signs of gradual improvement [2][3]. Core Insights - The CEEMEA Current Activity Indicator (CAI) has fallen below the estimated potential growth of +3.0-3.5% for the region, reflecting a moderation in overall activity [1][3]. - Inflation trends in CEEMEA have been mixed, with disinflation stalling in low-yielders and core inflation continuing to decline in most economies [3][4]. - The geopolitical risks from the Middle East conflict pose significant threats to the economic outlook of CEEMEA economies, particularly oil importers [5][6]. Summary by Sections Growth Dynamics - Turkey and Russia are experiencing significant slowdowns in growth due to tightened policies aimed at combating high inflation, with forecasts for weak growth in both economies for 2025 [2][3]. - The CEE-4 region, particularly Poland, is showing signs of improvement, although growth expectations have been delayed until 2025 due to ongoing weakness in the Euro area [7]. Inflation Trends - Recent inflation data in CEEMEA has shown a stall in the decline of headline inflation rates, particularly in high-yielders like Turkey and Egypt, while core inflation remains on a downward trend [3][4]. - The report has raised inflation forecasts for several CEEMEA economies, although they remain generally below consensus for 2024 and 2025 [3]. Geopolitical Risks - The intensification of the Middle East conflict presents risks to the CEEMEA economic outlook, especially for countries reliant on oil imports [5][6]. - The outcome of the upcoming US presidential election is highlighted as a potential binary event for emerging markets, with implications for global trade and EM growth [6]. Regional Insights - South Africa is expected to see growth improve from 1.1% in 2024 to 2.0% in 2025, supported by structural and cyclical factors [12][13]. - In Russia, inflation is projected to decline gradually, with a forecast of 7.8% year-on-year by Q4 2024, while the economy is expected to slow further [9][10]. - Turkey's disinflation process has been slower than anticipated, leading to a delay in monetary easing, with the first rate cut now expected in January 2025 [11]. External Challenges - Egypt faces rising external challenges, including a widening current account deficit, but strong prospects for capital inflows are expected to mitigate these risks [15]. - Kazakhstan's fiscal policy is expected to be looser than previously anticipated, which may lead to higher inflation and delays in monetary easing [20].