摩根士丹利：TSMC_2024 年强势收官；Top Pick

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to TSMC, indicating a positive outlook for the stock [6]. Core Insights - TSMC is expected to finish 2024 strongly, driven by increasing demand for AI semiconductors, with a projected revenue growth of 27% year-over-year in USD and a gross margin improvement to 55.5% in Q4 2024 [2][9]. - The stock appears attractive at 18x the estimated EPS for 2025, with potential for re-rating to 23x due to margin expansion and sustainable AI demand [9][36]. - TSMC's capital expenditures are projected to increase to US$38 billion in 2025, reflecting aggressive expansion plans to meet strong customer demand, particularly from Nvidia [3][19]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Margin Outlook - Q4 2024 revenue is expected to grow by 9% quarter-over-quarter, with full-year revenue growth of 27% year-over-year in USD [2]. - Gross margin is anticipated to improve to 55.5% in Q4 2024, supported by higher revenue scale despite margin dilution from 3nm technology and rising electricity costs [2][9]. Pricing Strategy - TSMC is successfully negotiating price hikes for advanced nodes, with expected increases of ≥10% for AI semiconductors and CoWoS, and 6% for HPC applications [4][30]. - The average price hike for 2025 is projected to be 4%-5%, which will contribute to gross margin improvements of 2-3 percentage points [4][30]. Demand Drivers - The report highlights strong demand for AI semiconductors, with expectations for revenue from AI semiconductors to double again in 2025 [3]. - TSMC is positioned to benefit from IDM outsourcing, particularly from Intel and Samsung, which is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth [15][16]. Capacity Expansion - TSMC plans to expand its CoWoS capacity significantly, with expectations to reach 80k by the end of 2025, driven by strong demand from cloud AI applications [19]. - The company is also expanding its 3nm and 2nm capacities to meet increasing customer needs, particularly from major clients like Apple and AMD [23][24]. Long-term Growth Potential - TSMC is projected to achieve a revenue CAGR of 15%-20% over the next five years, supported by its leadership in AI semiconductor manufacturing [16][36]. - The report estimates that AI semiconductors will contribute approximately 20% of TSMC's revenue by 2027, highlighting the company's strong position in the AI market [38].