摩根士丹利：石油手册_地缘政治与未解决的 2025 年盈余

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious stance on the oil market, with a near-term Brent forecast increase due to geopolitical risks, but a reduction in longer-term forecasts, projecting Brent prices to be $70/bbl for 2H 2025 [2][3][6]. Core Insights - Heightened geopolitical risks have driven oil prices higher, but the underlying supply-demand balance is weakening, with a projected surplus of 1.3 mb/d in 2025 [2][3][5]. - Demand has been weaker than expected, while supply has been stronger, leading to an increase in the surplus forecast from 0.7 mb/d to 1.3 mb/d [3][5][12]. - The report suggests that without a supply disruption, the expected surplus in 2025 remains unresolved, and prices may need to fall to drive rebalancing [2][3][6]. Supply/Demand Balance - The oil market is currently experiencing a significant imbalance, with a forecasted surplus of 1.3 mb/d in 2025, which is considered substantial and historically rare [3][28]. - The report indicates that the oil market is expected to be in a small deficit of 0.1 mb/d in 2024, followed by a surplus in 2025 due to demand growth of 1.1 mb/d and non-OPEC supply growth of 1.6 mb/d [26][30]. - The consensus forecast for non-OPEC production growth has been revised down from 1.1 mb/d to 0.3 mb/d for 2024, driven by lower-than-expected production in the US, Brazil, and Russia [17][21]. Price Forecasts - The report has increased the Brent price forecast for 4Q24 to $80/bbl, reflecting short-term supply concerns, but anticipates a decline to $70/bbl by the end of 2025 due to the expected surplus [4][6][30]. - Historical data suggests that when a supply-demand imbalance is well understood in advance, the market often adjusts, preventing the forecasted surplus from materializing [30][31]. Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are expected to continue supporting oil prices in the short term, but without actual supply disruptions, the market may face downward pressure [2][31]. - The report emphasizes that the likelihood of demand destruction becoming necessary is low, given the current supply situation and OPEC+ spare capacity [10][12].